Regime Engine · How It Works

What state is
the market actually in?

No news. No YouTube. No expert opinions.
Only the numbers the market itself generates.
The first reference point for any medium-to-long-term investment decision.

4Macro Input Signals
6-StageRegime Classification
23yr+Backtest Data
DailyAuto-Updated
TWO ENGINES

Two engines.
Two different time horizons.

The Regime Engine consists of two components: rg and ff. The rg engine reads the fundamental state of the market for medium-to-long-term positioning. The ff engine shows where current price levels sit in the short term.

rg

Medium-to-Long-Term Regime Engine

Four macro indicators are weighted and combined to translate the market's fundamental state into a single number. This output sets the directional context for all investment decisions — and must be checked before any individual stock analysis.

Medium-Long Term · Conservative Design
ff

Short-Term Price Level Engine

Shows whether the current KOSPI price level is in an overvalued or undervalued zone relative to the regime rg has identified. Not a short-term trading signal — a reference point for current price positioning.

Short Term · Current Price Basis
RG · INPUT SIGNALS

Four macro signals.
No opinions allowed.

Only four inputs enter rg. Each independently produces a stress value between 0 and 1. These are weighted and summed to produce the final Crisis Index R.

30%

News Sentiment Index

Quantifies the intensity of fear and optimism across the broader market. Detects when crowd psychology in media and financial discourse reaches an extreme.

30%

Leading Economic Index

Official statistical indicator leading economic direction by 6–9 months. Reflects the next cycle, not current sentiment or economic conditions.

20%

USD/KRW Exchange Rate

A hybrid of short-term rate-of-change and long-term 200-day deviation is used. Detects both temporary dislocations and sustained structural currency stress simultaneously.

20%

Brent Crude Volatility

Focuses on price volatility rather than direction. An early-warning indicator for global supply chain disruption and inflationary shock.

RG · OUTPUT

Four signals combine into
a 6-stage regime classification.

Crisis Index R, combined with the KOSPI moving average direction, classifies the market into one of six regimes. The regime determines cash allocation, buying intensity, and position direction.

GOLDILOCKS
R ≤ 0.2 · Golden Cross
Most favorable conditions. Maintain aggressive positioning.
BULL
R ≤ 0.3 · Golden Cross
Uptrend intact. Maintain base positioning.
NORMAL
All other conditions
No clear direction. Selective approach.
UNSTABLE
0.3 < R ≤ 0.65
Rising risk. Consider increasing cash allocation.
BEAR
R > 0.3 · Dead Cross
Downtrend initiated. Avoid new entries.
CRISIS
R > 0.65
Crisis mode. Maximize cash. Full defense.
HOW TO USE

Checking once
tells you almost nothing.

The regime rg outputs today is not the full picture. What matters is the direction the regime is moving — the trend.

RG · The Principle of Trend Observation

The same NORMAL means something completely different
depending on whether it came down from BULL or up from BEAR.

Is the regime improving or deteriorating? UNSTABLE → NORMAL → BULL is a signal to expand exposure. BULL → NORMAL → UNSTABLE is a signal to tighten risk management. The rg output only becomes actionable when read as a continuous time series.

GOLDILOCKS
Most favorable
BULL
Uptrend
NORMAL
Watch direction
UNSTABLE
Risk rising
BEAR/CRISIS
Defense mode
📬
rg Regime Change Alert — Newsletter (Coming Soon)
No need to check manually. Get notified when the regime shifts.

Visiting the site every day to check the regime is impractical — and critical transitions are easy to miss. We are building a newsletter service that delivers rg regime trend data directly to subscribers by email: a regime history table, transition alerts, and the trend of Crisis Index R over time.

COMING SOON · Early sign-up in preparation
INVESTMENT RESEARCH

What regime is
the market in today?

Today's Regime Engine output is available
on the Investment Code page, updated daily.

← Back to Investment Code

All analysis is provided for reference purposes only. Investment decisions and outcomes are the sole responsibility of the investor.
Regime classifications are statistically derived from historical data and do not guarantee future market direction.