Top-Down Monitoring · How It Works

Industries that are actually
shipping. Sectors where money moves.

Stock prices can rise on expectations alone. But are exports actually growing? Is institutional capital flowing into that sector?
We only surface stocks when both signals confirm at the same time.

2Independent Signals
35Monitored Sectors
600+Stocks Analyzed
MonthlyAuto-Updated
TWO SIGNALS

A rising stock price
does not mean rising earnings.

Market sentiment and real-world trade data are two different things. This system collects two signals from completely separate sources and only selects stocks at their intersection.

📦

Export Trade Signal

We analyze Korea Customs Service export data at the 6-digit HS code level. When a product category shows a statistically meaningful increase in exports, it means the companies manufacturing that product are actually seeing revenue growth — a signal rooted in real transactions, not expectations.

SOURCE · Korea Customs Service Trade Statistics
📈

ETF Capital Flow Signal

We track net asset changes across 35 sector-representative ETFs. Sustained inflows into a sector ETF indicate that institutional investors are placing real bets on that sector — not just media coverage or press releases, but actual capital movement.

SOURCE · 35 Sector Representative ETFs

Why both signals together? A sector with growing exports but no ETF inflows may simply mean the market hasn't discovered it yet — that's the opportunity window. Conversely, a sector with ETF inflows but no export backing is running on expectations alone. We only screen stocks in sectors where both signals are firing simultaneously.

SIGNAL MATRIX

Every stock gets placed
in one of four buckets.

Combining the export signal with the ETF capital flow signal produces four distinct states. Each state determines what action — if any — is taken on a stock.

Top Pick
📦 Exports Rising 📈 Capital Inflow

Both signals confirmed simultaneously

Real trade volumes are growing and institutional capital is moving in the same direction. Highest probability of earnings improvement materializing.

→ Immediate deep-dive analysis
Value Discovery
📦 Exports Rising 📈 No Capital Yet

What the market hasn't found yet

Export data is confirmed but ETF capital hasn't arrived. The market hasn't yet recognized the underlying trade strength — a potential entry before the re-rating.

→ Track as undervalued candidate
Watch List
📦 Exports Unconfirmed 📈 Capital Inflow

Sentiment running ahead of fundamentals

Capital is flowing in but export data doesn't support it. Likely pricing in expectations already. We do not enter — we wait for a price correction and set a target entry level.

→ Wait for price correction
Excluded
📦 Exports Declining 📈 Capital Outflow

No signal from either source

Neither trade data nor capital flows support the sector. Removed from analysis entirely.

→ Excluded from monitoring
HOW IT WORKS

From signal collection
to final stock list.

The two signals are collected and computed through entirely independent pipelines. They cross paths only at the final stage to produce the candidate stock list.

1
STEP 01 · Trade Signal Collection

Is export volume actually increasing?

Monthly export data from Korea Customs Service is analyzed at the 6-digit HS code level. Statistical decomposition separates seasonality, trend, and noise — only structurally increasing product categories pass through.

Rising HS code list confirmed
2
STEP 02 · ETF Capital Flow Analysis

Where is institutional money going?

Net asset trends across 35 sector ETFs are tracked independently. Sectors where statistically sustained inflows are confirmed are classified as INFLOW. This process runs completely separately from the trade signal pipeline.

INFLOW sector list confirmed
3
STEP 03 · Stock Extraction & Classification

Which companies are linked to the rising product categories?

Companies directly mapped to rising HS codes are extracted. Each company's sector ETF signal is then cross-referenced to classify them as Top Pick, Value Discovery, or Watch List.

Top Pick · Value Discovery list confirmed
4
STEP 04 · Earnings Upside Probability

Will the export growth actually flow through to earnings?

Export growth rates are mapped against each company's revenue structure to estimate operating income changes. Only stocks with a high probability of beating consensus EPS make the final list.

High-confidence EPS upside stocks confirmed
📋
Final Output — Recommended Stock List
Only stocks that pass all four stages are displayed
Top Pick
TOP PICK

Export growth and ETF inflows both confirmed, with high EPS upside probability. Immediate analysis candidates.

Value Discovery
VALUE

Export growth confirmed but market has not yet reacted. Candidates for entry ahead of re-rating.

Watch List
WATCH

Capital flowing in but trade data unconfirmed. Classified as sentiment-led. Waiting for target entry price after correction.

INVESTMENT RESEARCH

Trade-confirmed stocks.
Capital-backed sectors.

Today's Top Pick and Value Discovery lists
are available on the Investment Code page.

← Back to Investment Code

All analysis is provided for reference purposes only. Investment decisions and outcomes are the sole responsibility of the investor.
Trade and ETF data are based on historical statistics and do not guarantee future returns.