Stock prices can rise on expectations alone. But are exports actually growing?
Is institutional capital flowing into that sector?
We only surface stocks when both signals confirm at the same time.
Market sentiment and real-world trade data are two different things. This system collects two signals from completely separate sources and only selects stocks at their intersection.
We analyze Korea Customs Service export data at the 6-digit HS code level. When a product category shows a statistically meaningful increase in exports, it means the companies manufacturing that product are actually seeing revenue growth — a signal rooted in real transactions, not expectations.
SOURCE · Korea Customs Service Trade StatisticsWe track net asset changes across 35 sector-representative ETFs. Sustained inflows into a sector ETF indicate that institutional investors are placing real bets on that sector — not just media coverage or press releases, but actual capital movement.
SOURCE · 35 Sector Representative ETFsWhy both signals together? A sector with growing exports but no ETF inflows may simply mean the market hasn't discovered it yet — that's the opportunity window. Conversely, a sector with ETF inflows but no export backing is running on expectations alone. We only screen stocks in sectors where both signals are firing simultaneously.
Combining the export signal with the ETF capital flow signal produces four distinct states. Each state determines what action — if any — is taken on a stock.
Real trade volumes are growing and institutional capital is moving in the same direction. Highest probability of earnings improvement materializing.
Export data is confirmed but ETF capital hasn't arrived. The market hasn't yet recognized the underlying trade strength — a potential entry before the re-rating.
Capital is flowing in but export data doesn't support it. Likely pricing in expectations already. We do not enter — we wait for a price correction and set a target entry level.
Neither trade data nor capital flows support the sector. Removed from analysis entirely.
The two signals are collected and computed through entirely independent pipelines. They cross paths only at the final stage to produce the candidate stock list.
Monthly export data from Korea Customs Service is analyzed at the 6-digit HS code level. Statistical decomposition separates seasonality, trend, and noise — only structurally increasing product categories pass through.
Rising HS code list confirmedNet asset trends across 35 sector ETFs are tracked independently. Sectors where statistically sustained inflows are confirmed are classified as INFLOW. This process runs completely separately from the trade signal pipeline.
INFLOW sector list confirmedCompanies directly mapped to rising HS codes are extracted. Each company's sector ETF signal is then cross-referenced to classify them as Top Pick, Value Discovery, or Watch List.
Top Pick · Value Discovery list confirmedExport growth rates are mapped against each company's revenue structure to estimate operating income changes. Only stocks with a high probability of beating consensus EPS make the final list.
High-confidence EPS upside stocks confirmedExport growth and ETF inflows both confirmed, with high EPS upside probability. Immediate analysis candidates.
Export growth confirmed but market has not yet reacted. Candidates for entry ahead of re-rating.
Capital flowing in but trade data unconfirmed. Classified as sentiment-led. Waiting for target entry price after correction.
Today's Top Pick and Value Discovery lists
are available on the Investment Code page.
All analysis is provided for reference purposes only. Investment decisions and outcomes are the sole responsibility of the investor.
Trade and ETF data are based on historical statistics and do not guarantee future returns.